Man & the Machine: A Technological Revolution

Technological developments are moving at lightning speed. Undoubtedly, digitization, robotization, and automation are changing work more radically. Technological developments have an enormous impact on all parts of our existence: on our daily lives, on how we communicate, on medical care, on us as consumers, on our worldview, and, of course, at work. Work changes drastically, and the labor market is also transforming. In the future, workers will have to compete with increasingly affordable technologies. This is only possible if their - preferably advanced - technological knowledge is up to standard. Knowledge development and technological revolution are therefore inextricably linked.

Assuming that technology continues to develop faster and faster, we can outline two extreme scenarios. These extremes are primarily determined by knowledge (development). If we focus on technology concerning work and assume the trend in which knowledge lags behind technological progress, we roughly see the following scenario.

• Technology makes platformization possible. Platforms (think of platforms such as Uber, Airbnb, Fiverr, and Amazon) are playing an increasingly important role in the future of work organizations. By 2030, the organization of the workforce will be fragmented, and work will be strongly task-driven. Due to this platformization, we will have to look at work differently, legally, economically, and socially, and thus at income, securities and collectivity.

• By 2030, technology will have proven itself in terms of cost savings and efficiency. That is why robots and cobots are used on an immense scale. More and more work in the middle segment is fully automated and robotized; the job loss will be unprecedented, especially in the middle segment. As a result, we see far-reaching labor market polarization. The work that remains at the bottom is often of less significance. Highly educated people can choose from numerous functions around that technology (such as data specialists, designers, developers, programmers, etc.). Because people with the proper knowledge and expertise are scarce, the incomes in this group are high. This leads to further income inequality.

• Innovation is stagnating, putting our competitive position and thus our economy at risk. This is because knowledge plays a crucial role in innovation. Moreover, innovations result from a dynamic process caused by new technological applications and the internationalization of markets, to which companies adapt to varying degrees. Therefore, if the gathering, development, and improvement of knowledge lags behind, this will have negative consequences for the Netherlands as a knowledge economy and our country's economic growth. In this way, lagging in knowledge development leads to weaker competitive power.

• Technology is well on its way to overruling humans by 2030. Algorithms have enormous consequences for all aspects of society (e.g. algorithms determine income based on your earning potential based on IQ, parent's occupation, place of birth, etc.). We are moving towards a situation where AI makes far-reaching choices for us, from traffic participation to work planning. These are decision processes that are no longer manageable for a human brain. So we put the responsibility in the hands of algorithms and AI.

• In this scenario, the responsibility for training rests mainly with the workers. However, governments, employers' organizations, clients, and social partners do not see themselves as responsible for training workers. A result is an ever-growing group of people with secondary education who do not meet the needs of the labor market, and those people are out of the game. At the same time, this group often has no budget, time, or possibility to take responsibility for their education.

• Robots replace people; people lose their work and with it meaning, security, and, above all, value. As a result, there is great dissatisfaction in society and a decline in general prosperity: a lower perceived well-being and material wealth for a large group, a society in which there is low trust in each other, the government and the legal system, and the perceived insecurity increases.

If we assume that technology continues to develop faster and faster, the opposite scenario is also possible. In this scenario, technological development supports workers and enables them to develop knowledge at the pace of technological progress. This roughly leads to the following scenario.

• Plenty of programmers and other specialists can fine-tune technological applications in such a way that they support people. Moreover, most working people know how to use technology and have gone along with the skill shift.

• Using precisely programmed cobots and robots makes physical work lighter and safer. They also ensure that the time previously spent on repetitive tasks, for example, can now be used on absolute attention to customers or patients, and more human contact. As a result, the number of meaningful jobs will increase sharply in 2030.

• Technological solutions ensure that people with physical and psychological disabilities can (continue to) participate more often in the labor process. For example, an exoskeleton helps people with little muscle strength to move, a personal robot arm for people who no longer have an arm or hand function, and conversations can be subtitled live using VR. BCI chips enhance human neural processes and enhance individual intelligence. Biohacking and human enhancement in sustainable employability will be deployed in 2030.

• Communication technology has already blurred many boundaries. By 2030, people all over the world will be working either individually or in an international team. The digital nomad is the norm, as are tiny offices (work hubs), working in the cloud, and traveling without having to travel physically. Explorations for life beyond our planet have already paid off by 2030. The development of a second planet is in full swing, creating a new perspective.

• People still work an average of 20 hours, which means they have plenty of time for self-development, voluntary work, and informal care. Robots also do a large part of the household and administrative work at home.

• Because people will have sufficient income at all levels in 2030, pensions will no longer be an issue. As a worker in 2030, you take time in the phase in which it is convenient for you. With a little extra budget, you can send your telepresence device to work during the period.

• Compared to 2021, much more work will require cognitive skills in 2030, such as creative and critical thinking, empathy, agility, and interpersonal functioning. However, by 2030, robots or algorithms can only partly take over these skills.

• In 2030, governments, clients, employers' organizations, and social partners see it as their responsibility to encourage and guide workers in following training courses. As a result, employees at all levels participate in continuous and on-demand training pathways, thereby remaining relevant in the labor market.

• Robots replace people and thus offer people the opportunity to find meaning, security, and, above all, value. As a result, there is satisfaction in society and an increase in general prosperity: higher perceived well-being and material wealth across the board, a society in which there is trust in each other, the government, and the legal system, and the perceived safety increases. In addition, everyone here has a roof over their head and a clean, livable environment in which to live, work and live.

Technology will significantly impact work: it will change the type of work we do, how we work, and the role of work. What does that mean for those with whom we will work in the future? What kind of work do we have then? What changes do you see coming our way?