The Demographic Changes in a Changing Climate

There is much uncertainty in predicting what our work will look like in the future. However, some things can be predicted with great certainty:

• The number of inhabitants in the Netherlands will grow from 17.4 million -to 19.3 million in 2050.

• Nearly 90% of growth will be due to migration

• The population with a migration background will increase from 24 to 36%.

• The number of over-65s will grow from 19 to 25%.

• The demand for health care will grow much faster than the supply.

• The need for employees to achieve climate goals will increase.

By 2030, more people from Generation Y&Z will be at work than from Generation X or Baby Boomers.

One of the certainties is that Dutch society is aging rapidly. The proportion of people over 65 will increase from 19 to 25%. Statistics Netherlands has calculated that in 2040 life expectancy will be almost 86 years and that we will have four times as many people over 100 as there are now. By 2040, 25% of the inhabitants of our country will be 65+. The number of people over 75 doubles to 14%. This is also known as ‘double aging’. Most older adults will (continue to) live in rural areas, where sometimes as much as a third of the population is elderly.

The Dutch population is also expected to grow by almost two million in the next thirty years, from 17.4 million to 19.3 million in 2050. Nearly 90% of the growth is due to migration. The population with a migration background is increasing from 24 to 36%. Both the first and second generations are growing in size. Just like now, in 2050, the first generation will be larger than the second generation. An increasing proportion of 20 to 65-year-olds has a migration background. Now it is 27%, and in 2050, it will be 42%.

The growth of the labor force is now below replacement level, which means that across the board - but especially in sectors such as trade, ICT, and healthcare - there will be a loss of labor and the demand for work, specific competencies, and skills of the labor force will increase and change. In addition, the elderly will create an enormous extra demand for healthcare: where the need for care for the elderly is currently limited, it will grow to a care demand of 1 in 3 older people. This will put enormous pressure on the healthcare market, as the number of people available for this will in no way meet that demand.

The transition needed to achieve the climate goals and be resilient to the changing climate will increase the demand for employees. Precisely at a time when the (potential) working population is shrinking, research shows that tens of thousands of extra employees are needed to achieve the climate goals.

The aging population will also mean more people will be needed in healthcare. Due to the increasing age and the enormous growth in the number of elderly, the demand for care is increasing explosively. Many studies show that if we want to provide the current level of care in the future, one in five employees will have to work in the care sector by 2030. “We have to invest in retaining healthcare workers, developing life-long, scaling up technological and social innovations and in control,” said Minister Helder in an interview with Skipr. So how are we going to create inclusive employability and labor participation?

Considering all those changes, what does that mean for PGGM?